ABSRJ 2017 Volume 8, Number 2

Method VaR in the case of real estates

Ajda Fošner
GEA College, Slovenia
ajda.fosner@gea-college.si

Darja Kobe Govekar
Ministry of Defence, Slovenia
darja.kobe.govekar@gmail.com

Abstract
The aim of this article is to present the mathematical – statistical method VaR (Value at Risk) on the case of real estates. With the method VaR we predicted movements of the prices of real estates in Slovenia, France, Greece, Poland, and Norway. According to the results provided with the method VaR, the volatility of residential properties is different in each observed environment, but it is everywhere negative. In the short term (six months), we can expect minimum reduction of the prices of real estates in Greece (in Athens and other major cities) and the maximum reduction in Poland (in Warsaw and other major cities). Even in the long term (3 years), we can expect the smallest drop of prices in Greece and the largest in Poland.

Keywords: mathematical – statistical research methods; VaR; real estate

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